About
The key to the development of modern portfolio theory (MPT) is the placing of severely simplifying assumptions on risks. The behavioral content is ignored and only price volatility characterized by standard deviation or beta is considered. The MPT failed to interpret and prevent the global financial crisis and capital market panic in 2008.
Dr. Charlie Q. Yang discovered a family of non-normal distributions and dual-mode market statistics in 1996. His research was later extended to become a new theory called the Capital Market Behavior Theory (CMBT). For the first time in history, the statistical assumptions of MPT are completely removed and so do the limitations. His work can enable government regulators and financial institutions to control market risks with a clear understanding of capital pricing statistics as derived by investors’ behavior. The findings have been extensively validated by real time market data since 2000 and evolved to systematic implementation of Human Emotion Index as a new leading indicator of primary market cycles.
In summary, CMBT is based on the behavioral interpretation of capital market pricing as follows:
- Capital market pricing is determined by collective effect of all bullish and bearish investors’ perception on the price.
- Capital market pricing is not decided by those investors with interest but taking no actions to support market prices.
Fundamental value and technical charting do not directly affect capital market pricing. In other words, capital market pricing is driven only by the behavior of those investors who take trading actions.
